If you read through the Iowa poll, it is clear that the War in Iraq is of primary interest to probable caucus voters, since among them, supporting someone who would end the war garners the highest level of response to the survey. Moreover, when they were asked what were their most important issues, the war, healthcare, and social security were tops. 
  
What comes into focus for me is that the recent debate over Iran is having an impact.  The bellicose comments from George Bush and his side-kick Dick Cheney over the fact that Iran must not be allowed to pursue the path of developing nuclear weapons has signaled to many that they intend to go to war with Iran. 
  
The prospect of this action has frightened many people, creating an urgency to the issue of Iraq in general that goes against Clinton’s moderate position and favors Obama’s attacks against her vote giving the Bush administration the right to consider the Iranian Guard a “terrorist organization.”
  
They fear that would be the legal pretext upon which the Administration could take military action tied to its war against “terrorism” in Iraq. Thus the timing of the debate over Iran and the shift in the support to Obama cannot be ignored.
  
I wonder, however, whether this dynamic will also boost Black support for Obama. The recent survey of the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies found that the war in Iraq was the top issue among Blacks, along with healthcare, jobs and the economy. But with respect to the war, while Blacks felt that both Clinton and Obama are seen as having the best positions on the Iraq war, Clinton’s position was best. This result, however, was registered before the blow-up over Iran.
  
A key indicator to the possible shift of Black support to Obama is that the race in South Carolina is tightening. The most recent Clemson University poll finds a virtual tie among Clinton (19 percent) and Obama (17 percent) -- its margin of error being 4.6 percent -- largely because of a seven percent drop in Clinton’s support since the last poll. 
  
In South Carolina, where Blacks are half of primary voters, no doubt there is something moving them also toward Obama and it is likely to be the same Iranian factor. It may not register as strongly now because Obama has spent far more time in Iowa than in South Carolina, but the promise of change that may thwart a war with Iran may turn out to be the most important factor to Black voters right now.
  
Another key to this is that the specter of war impacts the female vote greater than the male vote in general. Thus, the articles about how the strength of the Obama vote among females is based on his good looks may be beside the point. What’s more important is that he might just keep them out of another war. The female vote in Iowa, as in the nation, is critical because women vote in larger percentages than men.
  
So, I now understand somewhat better why Obama would go into the Apollo Theater in Harlem, stand before a largely Black audience and make the racial bows to the Jena Six injustice and other issues. I understand why he would also come out swinging against Hillary Clinton in her – and Bill’s -- backyard. Obama’s connection to Black issues counts. But just like in the 2004 election when Black voters chose a candidate with presumed war competence over Black presidential candidates that could be the deciding factor in this election as well. 
  
It is a reminder that one of the difficulties of injecting critical issues important to the Black community into the presidential campaign is the presence of the war and this is a good reason to work to shut it down. Perhaps in this case, with a Black candidate being the beneficiary of the shifting support, both things could happen.

Dr. Ron Walters is the Distinguished Leadership Scholar, director of the African American Leadership Center, and professor of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland College Park. His latest books are: “White Nationalism, Black Interests” (Wayne State U. Press;) and “Freedom Is Not Enough” (Rowman and Littlefield.)