I say again that the Black vote is crucial in Southern states, where it constitutes as much as half of the Democratic primary, but it also is critical in states where the White vote will be closely split.
  
For example, in the 2006 midterm election, the national picture showed that Whites voted slightly in the majority (52 percent) for Republicans, but Blacks voted 82 percent for Democrats. Democrats won close statewide Senate elections in Southern states like Maryland and Virginia, but also in Pennsylvania, Missouri, New Jersey and elsewhere.  
  
My guess is that Obama is beginning to campaign in Black communities much harder and Black folks – perhaps spurred on by the media – are beginning to clue-in to the discussion. Their concern about Black views of his Blackness was key. The media raised questions about this, essentially because the notion has historically threatened them.  Malcolm was too Black, Stokley was too Black, so was H. Rap Brown. Now too is the Rev. Al Sharpton and anyone else who has strongly espoused Black liberation. 
  
But Blacks began to listen to the dialogue and also hear that Obama has done a number of Black things that, while they may not put him in the tradition of a nationalist, surely makes him more palatable than the others running for president. And that is the dirty little secret. 
  
Barack Obama does not have to be the Rev. Jesse Jackson Sr.; he can be more liberal than the others – in other words, as close to Black as he can be – and still show up better.   For example, everybody is discussing the relative position of the candidates on the war, but I have not seen Hillary disavow her connection with the Democratic Leadership Council – the right wing of the Democratic party – yet.  
  
On that score, the only person now in the race who could possibly keep up with Obama in terms of an agenda is John Edwards, who still has a downside. Even if he can row even with Obama on issues, the emotional tug of the fact that his skin is not Black still puts him at a disadvantage.   
  
So, I predict that Obama’s favorable ratings will continue to climb in the Black community and, as a consequence, the ranks of Blacks who have jumped aboard Clinton’s ship will become smaller and smaller. She understands this and this is why she wants to go toe-to-toe with Obama, deciding to buggy on down to the annual Edmund Pettus Bridge crossing in Selma, Ala. to speak at a church at the same time that Obama speaks at Brown Chapel. 
  
At the base of the movement in Obama’s numbers is the growing comfort level felt by many Blacks with the nature of his campaign. And, even though he has not put forth a barrage of race-specific legislative proposals, people seem to be getting it, as he shows up and makes his pitches for education, health care and the like.  
  
We’ll get more specific about this as time goes on. But, for now, it seems that the only way that Clinton or Edwards can trump him is to begin to make specific race-oriented issue appeals. In other words, they would begin to compete for the Black vote in the strongest terms and go directly to the heart of Black interests. 
  
In a recent interview with National Public Radio, Obama admitted that because of his background he is more likely to speak in universal terms when addressing issues. That could work to his disadvantage if his opponents get religion and come after him on the race-specific level. We will get an answer to this question at Selma and beyond.

Dr. Ron Walters is the Distinguished Leadership Scholar, director of the African American Leadership Institute and professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland at College Park. His latest books are “White Nationalism, Black Interests” (Wayne State University Press) and “Freedom Is Not Enough” (Rowman and Littlefield Publishers).