With the first presidential debate now behind us – and what a relief it’s over – organizations who profess to use a “rigorous scientific-based dual-frame approach” in their telephone survey methodology designed to represent the adult population, like the Marist Institute for Public Opinion or the Pew Research Center, are already poised to release their latest poll.
Of course, the question posed to Americans, via phone, text or online surveys, is which candidate, President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump, represents their choice for president.
And while the results of polls can be interesting, even titillating, for news junkies and “little old ladies from Pasadena,” it’s critical to understand that the results aggregated from polls only represent a small swath of the American population.
Despite their proven track records for releasing polls that accurately identify the eventual winner in elections and their claims of transparency related to the methodology that they employ, pollsters admit that there’s always a margin of error.
In other words, there’s always the possibility that they’ll get it wrong.
For example, historians still talk about the banner headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman,” that the Chicago Daily Tribune (now the Chicago Tribune) was forced to retract after incorrectly publishing the results of the election on November 3, 1948.
But it begs the question “who was among the sample of polled citizens on which the Tribune based their headline? Was it an inclusive sampling? Have you ever been asked to respond to surveys about your choice for president?
Even if you’re not particularly excited by either of the candidates, the incumbent or the former president, and even if you’re thinking about staying home this year and not voting at all, the reality remains – someone is going to win. And every vote – especially when it comes to presidential elections – counts.
In 1960 with the candidates tied at 47% in the Gallup polls, John F. Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon by less than 120,000 votes out of 68.8 million votes cast. And in one of the most contentious presidential elections in U.S. history, George W. Bush, despite losing the popular vote by about 500,000 votes, won the Electoral College, 271 to 266, and was declared the winner.
On Friday, June 28, the morning following the first of two scheduled presidential debates, and with the general election just a few months away, both Trump and Biden have said they won in their first showdown since October 22, 2020.
Meanwhile, polling organizations and political pundits are chomping at the bit to share their opinions.
But “at the end of the day,” it’s not polls or pundits who vote – it’s people.