Black voters are signaling dissatisfaction, caution and conditional readiness to act as the 2026 elections approach, according to a sweeping new national study examining political opposition and civic engagement within Black communities.
“At a time when democracy, economic justice, and civil rights remain under sustained pressure, understanding the motivations, concerns, and engagement patterns of Black voters is not optional, it is essential,” said Melanie L. Campbell, president and CEO of the National Coalition on Black Civic Participation and Convener of the Black Women’s Roundtable.
The findings are detailed in “The State of Black Opposition and Engagement in 2026,” a year-long research initiative conducted by HIT Strategies and commissioned by the National Coalition on Black Civic Participation in partnership with the Black Opps Coalition. The project included national focus groups, a 1,000-person survey of Black registered voters and a rapid message test of more than 1,800 voters nationwide.
“The Black Opp Project provides a data-driven roadmap for how we protect our freedoms, strengthen our democracy, and ensure that Black voices remain powerful and decisive in 2026 and beyond,” Campbell asserted.
Researchers divided the electorate into three segments. Thirty percent are classified as “Defenders,” voters already highly active in resistance activities and 98% certain to vote in 2026. Thirty-four percent are labeled “Activatables,” voters who recognize that issues they care about are under attack but prioritize self-preservation over public action. Twenty-four percent fall into the “Spectators” category, less likely to see urgency in fighting back and only 68% certain to vote.
Economic strain is central to voter sentiment. Fifty-nine percent of Black voters surveyed in October 2025 said Trump’s policies had hurt them personally, up from 47% in April 2025. Still, 30% said those policies had “not made much of a difference,” with younger men and less engaged voters more likely to express that view.
The report details the economic messages that resonated most. Proposed Medicaid cuts tested particularly high, with researchers noting that 60% of Black youth rely on Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program. Tariffs projected to cost middle-income households $22,000 over a lifetime also generated concern, especially given that 91 percent of Black Americans fall into lower- or middle-income brackets. Cuts to the Department of Education and the Office of Fair Housing were also cited as policies that could disproportionately affect Black families.
Yet the data shows a wide gap between belief in resistance and participation in it. Majorities say voting and encouraging others to vote are extremely effective, and many view boycotts and peaceful protest as powerful. But far fewer have attended town halls, volunteered for grassroots organizations or participated in high-risk public demonstrations. Sixty percent said no one had asked them to participate in resistance activities in the past year.
“In 2020, the resistance was led by young people and people of color. Today, resistance is led by older, college-educated people with the financial stability to resist,” the report states.
Fear of Fighting Back: ‘It’s Scary Asserting Ourselves as Black Folks‘
Fear and skepticism remain significant barriers. Thirty-two percent cited fear of arrest as a top reason for not fighting back, and the same percentage pointed to fear of mob violence against Black people. Nearly one-quarter said resistance does not lead to meaningful change.
Focus group participants gave voice to those concerns.
“It’s scary asserting ourselves as Black folks in this resisting, because we already know about martial law,” a 35-year-old Black woman from Virginia said in the report. “We already know that Trump gives power to the police. We already know that if we go out there with them people, something bad could pop off and then we’re in trouble. So, we do what we do best. We’re just going to sit back and watch things get done.”
At the same time, motivations to act remain deeply rooted in family, rights and future generations. Forty-seven percent of Black voters selected “to fight back against racism and injustice” as one of their top two reasons to resist government actions. Thirty-five percent cited defending their rights and family, and 30% named defending American democracy.
“The school systems here are horrible…my kids are in school. I want them and the other children to have opportunity to learn and to be something,” said a 29-year-old Black woman from Georgia during a focus group.
The research also tested messages designed to increase participation. Content that named specific economic harms, showed proof of progress from past resistance and addressed risks such as arrest or professional retaliation increased likelihood of boycotting by up to 10 percentage points and increased protest likelihood by up to 7 points in some tests.
Across nearly every demographic group, respondents reported greater belief that the Black community has the power to make change on issues that matter most after exposure to targeted messaging.
“At this crucial moment, we set out to understand what holds Black people back from taking action today and how we can mobilize Black political power in 2026,” the report concludes, identifying “lower-risk, high-impact actions that would support economic justice without putting individuals and families in jeopardy, helping us mobilize effectively in the years ahead.”