The House-passed “One Big Beautiful Bill,” backed by President Donald Trump and House Republicans, promises a generous tax reprieve for high earners but the measure is far from pretty as it spells reduced support for those who rely on safety net programs. Nowhere is the contrast more evident than in Washington, D.C., where simulations using the Penn Wharton Budget Model expose deep disparities in who benefits — and who loses.
A married couple with three children earning $200,000 a year in D.C. stands to gain nearly $10,000 under the plan. Thanks to expanded child tax credits and a raised cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction, their total benefit: $9,925.
A single resident earning $450,000, the highest income allowed in the Wharton calculator, fares even better, netting a $11,762 windfall — a reflection of extended 2017 tax cuts and breaks for high-income earners, including deductions for pass-through business income and an expanded estate tax exemption.
In contrast, D.C. residents in lower brackets see far less relief.
A married couple with two children earning $50,000 would only gain $1,054, while a single worker earning the same takes home just $927 in net benefits. The modest gains largely stem from a temporary $500 increase in the child tax credit, which raises it to $2,500 through 2028, but are offset by indirect losses tied to reduced public benefits.
Even a married household with three children earning $100,000 gains just over $3,000. Meanwhile, a single taxpayer making $100,000 earns a better return, at $4,432, due to fewer dependents absorbing benefit losses.
“This plan overwhelmingly benefits wealthy households,” the Wharton Budget Model’s authors noted in their May 23 report. “About 70% of the bill’s total gains flow to the top 10% of earners, while low-income families experience small gains or net losses — especially once Medicaid and SNAP reductions are factored in.”
Those cuts are substantial. According to the same report, the bill slashes Medicaid by more than $900 billion and SNAP (food stamps) by nearly $300 billion over the next decade. These reductions are expected to force millions off of public assistance — a development disproportionately affecting Black and brown communities in ZIP codes like 20019, 20020, and 20032, where public benefit participation rates are among the highest in the District.
A low-income single mother with two children, making $20,000 per year in D.C. and relying on Medicaid and SNAP, would see her net financial standing worsen by $870 annually, despite minor tax cuts. For households like hers, the promise of tax relief is canceled out by lost benefits and increased requirements.
The SALT deduction cap increase, from $10,000 to $40,000, offers substantial relief to high earners in high-tax jurisdictions like D.C. but leaves renters and working-class homeowners with little benefit.
Meanwhile, the bill’s elimination of taxes on tips and overtime — another high-profile talking point from Trump — is capped and only applies to non- “highly compensated” workers, defined as those earning less than $160,000 per year. Even then, the deduction ends in 2028, raising questions about long-term relief.
In total, the bill adds $2.8 trillion to the national deficit, according to the Congressional Budget Office and Penn Wharton analysts, while reducing the income of low-income Americans by more than $800 a year on average by 2026 — and by $1,500 annually by 2033.
“It’s a redistribution of benefits — but in reverse,” said Kent Smetters, director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model. “The bill reduces government support for the poor to pay for tax cuts for the rich.”
